An investor’s edge as the competition gets tougher
I would say there’s been a great increase in the number people doing dumb things. And they do big, dumb things.
Part 2: Human Foibles and Investment Decision Making
Minimizing regret is a loser’s strategy
Really wonderful companies will often get overpriced and selling means losing a position in a first-rate company.
A set of rules to develop a behavioral edge – Part 7
Subjective confidence in a judgment is not a reasoned evaluation of the probability that this judgment is correct
A set of rules to develop a behavioral edge – Part 6
The strong bias toward believing that small samples closely resemble the population from which they are drawn is also part of a larger story
A set of rules to develop a behavioral edge – Part 5
Our mind searches for confirming evidence that we are right and shies away from contrary evidence.
A set of rules to develop a behavioral edge – Part 4
Herding. All stock market prices are both the cause and result of herding behavior amongst investors.
A set of rules to develop a behavioral edge – Part 3
Our gut needs training. Many of our instinctive feelings are the exact opposite of what we should be doing.
A set of rules to develop a behavioral edge – Part 2
It is very important not to fall into the attractive trap of extrapolating the most recent past into the future.
A set of rules to develop a behavioral edge – Part 1
Today everyone is fretting about inflation and the potential for a recession. Trying to decide on the outlook for these macro-economic things can be a distraction.
Can we use heuristics to analyze a business?
Adequate, though often imperfect, answers to difficult questions
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