Subjective confidence in a judgment is not a reasoned evaluation of the probability that this judgment is correct
The strong bias toward believing that small samples closely resemble the population from which they are drawn is also part of a larger story
Our mind searches for confirming evidence that we are right and shies away from contrary evidence.
Herding. All stock market prices are both the cause and result of herding behavior amongst investors.
Our gut needs training. Many of our instinctive feelings are the exact opposite of what we should be doing.
It is very important not to fall into the attractive trap of extrapolating the most recent past into the future.
Today everyone is fretting about inflation and the potential for a recession. Trying to decide on the outlook for these macro-economic things can be a distraction.
The edge for investors is what I call the behavioral edge. You don’t need more data than everyone else. You don’t need to be smarter. You just need to master your own behavior.
The concerns which fail are those which have scattered their capital, which means that they have scattered their brains also. They have investments in this, or that, or the other, here, there and everywhere
Can we improve on the accuracy of these estimates by obtaining estimates from, say, 22 leading investment banks and averaging them?