I am not attuned to this market environment, and I don’t want to spoil a decent record by trying to play a game I don’t understand just so I can go out a hero.
The main benefit of optimism is resilience in the face of setbacks
Investing based essentially on the business cycle outlook is a fools’ game.
Is buying with a margin of safety really the closet practice of market timing?
The cash in the portfolio may be enough to take advantage of the opportunity. Or it may not be enough. It doesn’t matter. The investor is in the delicious position of comparing the new opportunity with all other holdings in the portfolio.
The subjective confidence we have in our personal level of skill is absolutely no guide as to whether we actually have the skill.
Math and algorithms will give precise answers. And therein lies the problem.
The courageous may take heart but, before boldness must come skill. Boldness without skill is a recipe for disaster.
Worldly wisdom teaches that it is better for reputation to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally
The good news is that we can do something. Kahneman describes risk policies as decision rules that are always applied in similar situations.