Quantitative vs intuitive in investing
Human decisions affecting the future, whether personal or political or economic, cannot depend on strict mathematical expectation, since the basis for making such calculations does not exist.
The economy and the stock market
We do not have, never have had, and never will have an opinion about where the stock market, interest rates, or business activity will be in a year from now
The role of ETFs in a stock picker’s life
A few years ago I realized we needed a plan in the event I predeceased my wife
Negative free cash flow can be desirable
Despite this problem, we consider the owner earnings figure, not the GAAP figure, to be the relevant item for valuation purposes
The best number of stocks to own
Too much of a good thing can be wonderful
A time of maximum pessimism
So we search for those things that other people are selling and then if the problem or adverse outlook is temporary we buy them and hold them patiently for years until the public changes its mind.
Scatter shot estimates of fair value
A group with a high anchor were prepared to pay three times as much for the same wine as a group with a low anchor
Cut your losses is confused advice
Your baggage is what you already own, and it gets in the way of excellence.
Risk when markets are down
Here were financial people who could seriously consider that stocks are less safe because they have declined in price than they were after they had advanced in price
The problem with stock screening
What is worse, it directs the investor to a list of companies that may be completely out of tune with today’s economy
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