Nuggets of Investing Wisdom

Nuggets of Investing Wisdom

A website for serious investors in common stocks – Read by investors in over 150 countries around the world

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cognitive errors

The Winner’s Curse and Homo Investorus

  • by Rodney Smith
  • Posted on January 18, 2026January 31, 2026
  • Part 2: Human Foibles and Investment Decision Making

The world does not operate in accordance with conventional economic or finance theory posited on the notion that people are both rational and selfish.

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The Law of Small Numbers for investors per Daniel Kahneman

  • by Rodney Smith
  • Posted on June 30, 2025June 30, 2025
  • Part 2: Human Foibles and Investment Decision Making

The strong bias toward believing that small samples closely resemble the population from which they are drawn is also part of a larger story: We are prone to exaggerate the consistency and coherence of what we see.

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The price of risk in equity markets

  • by Rodney Smith
  • Posted on March 2, 2025March 7, 2025
  • Part 2: Human Foibles and Investment Decision Making

Mr. Market demands a very high expected return before he will invest in stocks. Whereas Mr. Bond suffers money illusion.

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A Daniel Kahneman core achievement applied to investing

  • by Rodney Smith
  • Posted on December 22, 2024December 30, 2024
  • Part 2: Human Foibles and Investment Decision Making

Consistent overweighting of improbable outcomes – a feature of intuitive decision making – eventually leads to inferior outcomes.

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Danny Kahneman type risk policies for investors

  • by Rodney Smith
  • Posted on March 31, 2024November 5, 2024
  • Part 2: Human Foibles and Investment Decision Making

Investor psychology can cause a security to be priced just about anywhere in the short run, regardless of its fundamentals

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Investment psychology explainer for Mr. Market – introduction

  • by Rodney Smith
  • Posted on June 14, 2020January 25, 2026
  • Part 2: Human Foibles and Investment Decision Making

In truth, Mr. Market’s emotional problems are the least part of it. What he really suffers from is behavioral biases and a propensity to make cognitive errors.

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