The Winner’s Curse and Homo Investorus
The world does not operate in accordance with conventional economic or finance theory posited on the notion that people are both rational and selfish.
The world does not operate in accordance with conventional economic or finance theory posited on the notion that people are both rational and selfish.
The strong bias toward believing that small samples closely resemble the population from which they are drawn is also part of a larger story: We are prone to exaggerate the consistency and coherence of what we see.
Mr. Market demands a very high expected return before he will invest in stocks. Whereas Mr. Bond suffers money illusion.
Consistent overweighting of improbable outcomes – a feature of intuitive decision making – eventually leads to inferior outcomes.
Investor psychology can cause a security to be priced just about anywhere in the short run, regardless of its fundamentals
In truth, Mr. Market’s emotional problems are the least part of it. What he really suffers from is behavioral biases and a propensity to make cognitive errors.
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