Investing in a permacrisis
The prophets of doom have overlooked the all-important factor
Part 1: The Field of Play
The danger of too low inflation
Prior to Covid the neutral interest rate had continued its long decline
Money illusion
Failure to perceive that the dollar, or any other unit of money, expands or shrinks in value
The economy and the stock market
We do not have, never have had, and never will have an opinion about where the stock market, interest rates, or business activity will be in a year from now
The role of ETFs in a stock picker’s life
A few years ago I realized we needed a plan in the event I predeceased my wife
Risk when markets are down
Here were financial people who could seriously consider that stocks are less safe because they have declined in price than they were after they had advanced in price
Random walks and butterfly effects on Wall Street
Movies goers will report liking a movie more when they hear beforehand how good it is
How to cope with volatility
A high volatility 5-to-10-year return stream that might see several 30% drawdowns on the way to a superb 10 year record
The stock market as a complex adaptive system
And she says, “I can see you don’t understand arithmetic.” He says, “I can see you don’t understand sheep.”
Gold is not an investment
Thus there is an element of compound interest operating in favor of a sound industrial investment.
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