What mattered most was confidence in one’s own judgment, from which would flow the Kiplingesque cool to keep one’s head ‘when all about you are losing theirs’
The main benefit of optimism is resilience in the face of setbacks
The subjective confidence we have in our personal level of skill is absolutely no guide as to whether we actually have the skill.
Math and algorithms will give precise answers. And therein lies the problem.
The courageous may take heart but, before boldness must come skill. Boldness without skill is a recipe for disaster.
It is all very good to recommend caution, but decisions must be made. In truth, many policies must be established and decisions made with imperfect understanding of the facts and of the risks.