Why I don’t invest in gold
If the current gold bubble bursts, as the 1970s gold bubble burst, it might take decades for gold investors to recover their investment in real terms without any dividends or interest payments along the way.
Part 5: Asset Management
Thoughts on early or late repayment of a mortgage
All of those efforts produced retirement savings that allowed us to retire
The forward earnings yield another obsolete indicator
What Warren Buffett describes as the factors that make the stock market tick. They were interest rates, investor expectations for profits and investor confidence. The Fed Model was too simple but it was not in error in taking interest rates into account. Based on what I write below we should change ‘investor expectations for profits’ to ‘investor expectations for cash flows’.
My thoughts on the Buffett Indicator – current Market Cap to GDP
The best cash flow measure is Warren Buffett’s Owner Earnings. If that is increasing faster than GDP, the fair value of companies will increase faster than GDP
Is it a good time to lighten up on stocks?
If the job has been correctly done when a common stock is purchased, the time to sell it is – almost never.
Asset allocation out of step with modern investment management
We are looking for opportunities and we don’t much care what category they’re in
Dynamic asset allocation and the Equity Risk Premium
Market and economic structures can shift, undercutting a key basis for using historical data to make predictions
Disagreeing with Jeremy Grantham’s bubble call Part ll
Warren Buffett terminated his partnership, paid out his investors and went to cash. That’s the only time in his many decades of investing that he has taken such radical action.
Will the inflation fight torpedo the stock market?
The conquest of inflation was a landmark accomplishment with enduring benefits, but it came with heavy costs. After a brief recession in 1980 and a short rebound, the economy slumped deeply in 1981 and 1982
Disagreeing with Jeremy Grantham’s bubble call
Among other factors, indicators of extremes of euphoria seem much more important than price
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