If I have to bite at stuff that is out of my happy zone, I’m not a .334 hitter
In good years, if not in all years, they retain a part of their profits and put them back in the business.
Doing what everybody else is doing at the moment, and therefore what you have an almost irresistible urge to do, is often the wrong thing to do at all
As John Templeton would advise, you look for your bargains amongst individual stocks
Something that knocks the pins out from our normal understanding of price earnings ratios, return on invested capital, discounted cash flow analysis, smart beta/factor ETFs, value at risk models (VAR) and even company financial statements
Mathematical models that show price correlation will give precise answers but aren’t useful
But I am not building up a baseball bullpen of game-ready companies
It’s amazing that 2% makes such a big difference
The concerns which fail are those which have scattered their capital, which means that they have scattered their brains also. They have investments in this, or that, or the other, here, there and everywhere
Can we improve on the accuracy of these estimates by obtaining estimates from, say, 22 leading investment banks and averaging them?