A set of rules to develop a behavioral edge – Part 7
Subjective confidence in a judgment is not a reasoned evaluation of the probability that this judgment is correct
overconfidence
Moderate risk tolerance
One way to be adept at avoiding failure is to avoid attempting anything you might fail at
The frailty of high conviction ideas
We need to have full confidence in our judgement about a company if we are to make a serious financial commitment to it. But, the strength of our belief that we are right has nothing to do with the validity of our judgement. And, if that sounds weird, blame in on behavioral psychology.
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