The price of risk in equity markets
Mr. Market demands a very high expected return before he will invest in stocks. Whereas Mr. Bond suffers money illusion.
probability
What investors can learn from professional gamblers
Now, real games are not like that at all. Real life is not like that. Real life consists of bluffing, of little tactics of deception, of asking yourself what is the other man going to think I mean to do. And that is what games are about in my theory.
Luck and taking a flyer
The notions of coherence, plausibility, and probability are easily confused by the unwary.
Quantitative vs intuitive in investing
Human decisions affecting the future, whether personal or political or economic, cannot depend on strict mathematical expectation, since the basis for making such calculations does not exist.
The psychology of probability
Probabilities are at the heart of investing. We look at examples of our human frailties in assessing probabilities.
The psychology of risk
Risk aversion is an unwillingness to take on a risk in spite of the fact that the reward amply justifies the risk taken
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