Before practice, opportunity, and luck can combine to create expertise, the would-be expert needs to demythologize the achievement of top-level performance, because the notion that genius is born, not made, is deeply ingrained
They must avoid the temptation to say that lady luck owes them one and take outsized risks
The notions of coherence, plausibility, and probability are easily confused by the unwary.
If a man is both wise and lucky, he will not make the same mistake twice. But he will make any one of the ten thousand brothers or cousins of the original.
The tech fund managers could only hold their noses and invest the money in whatever stock was available that fitted the description ‘tech stock’.
You can continue to learn and improve your investing skills year after year.
It is only by working at what you can’t do that you turn into the expert you want to become.
The courageous may take heart but, before boldness must come skill. Boldness without skill is a recipe for disaster.
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