Let’s face it, we’re really bad at patterns and statistics

In our hunt for the investment guru we get hit with a double whammy of cognitive errors. We see patterns in random data because we, as humans, love to find causes and patterns suggest causes. And, we jump to conclusions on the basis of statistically insignificant data, again, because we love to identify causes.

A curated reading list while we are away

The single greatest misapprehension I’ve seen by common stock investors in recent years, including many professional money managers, is to misunderstand the impact of company investment in intangibles of lasting value.

The world has changed. The biggest shift in the world of business in the last forty years has been the swing in company capital investment away from tangible assets and towards intangible assets. This has had a major impact on metrics such as earnings, price/earnings, book value of equity, ROC, ROE, CAPE and several others.