The edge for investors is what I call the behavioral edge. You don’t need more data than everyone else. You don’t need to be smarter. You just need to master your own behavior.
Too much of a good thing can be wonderful
Inactivity strikes us as intelligent behavior
This first one is timely as the stock market is currently in a blue funk
The Tags Index on the home page gives easy access to over 130 great posts on everything from Investment Psychology to Warren Buffett’s concept of Economic Goodwill vs Accounting Goodwill.
CAPE is ignorant of interest rates
A fancy spreadsheet will give precise numbers but can also give you a false sense of accuracy.
A high ratio of price to book value, a high price-earnings ratio, and a low dividend yield – are in no way inconsistent with a ‘value’ purchase.
The last time I made any specific stock market predictions was in the year 1914, when my firm judged me qualified to write their daily market letter, based on the fact that I had one month’s experience in Wall Street.
About forty years ago Buffett experienced a Damascene conversion