A coward’s primer for investors per Paul Samuelson
Kahneman is telling us that an ordinary person might, without being thought silly or irrational or cowardly, reject the single bet but decide to take on the 100-bet game.
balance
Match the market going up and, in a pullback, go down less
By timing we mean the endeavor to anticipate the action of the stock market – to buy or hold when the future course is deemed to be upward, to sell or refrain from buying when the course is downward. By pricing we mean the endeavor to buy stocks when they are quoted below their fair value and to sell them when they rise above such value.
How many stocks to own?
One of the reasons I can have a concentrated portfolio is because I understand what I own.
Asset allocation out of step with modern investment management
We are looking for opportunities and we don’t much care what category they’re in
Investment decision making in face of uncertainty
Robust decision-making embraces many plausible futures, then helps analysts and decision makers identify near-term actions that are robust across a very wide range of futures
KISS, diversification and balance
Mathematical models that show price correlation will give precise answers but aren’t useful
Conventional diversification makes no sense
The concerns which fail are those which have scattered their capital, which means that they have scattered their brains also. They have investments in this, or that, or the other, here, there and everywhere
The best number of stocks to own
Too much of a good thing can be wonderful
Buying a stock – dating, not fully wedded
Clearly it is not a moaty Warren Buffett enterprise. But, over the next five years or so it has the potential to become one.
Fallacies around the truth of what drives the market
The top-performing 2.4% of firms account for all of the $US 75.7 trillion in net global stock market wealth creation from 1990 to December 2020
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