Not everything that counts can be counted
It is difficult to accept uncertainty. It is tempting to try and escape it by kidding ourselves and each other, but that is liable to land us in greater difficulties.
forecasts
How to buy stocks at bargain prices
Declining free cash flow may be a sign the company is investing for the future! Or it may be a very bad sign. Increasing free cash flow may be a good sign or a bad sign. It’s all in the interpretation of the financials.
The curious advice to sell in May and go away
We are prone to exaggerate the consistency and coherence of what we see.
What to make of economic and market forecasts
We do not have, never have had, and never will have an opinion about where the stock market, interest rates, or business activity will be a year from now
Investment decision making in face of uncertainty
Robust decision-making embraces many plausible futures, then helps analysts and decision makers identify near-term actions that are robust across a very wide range of futures
The search for a better guide to stock values
Can we improve on the accuracy of these estimates by obtaining estimates from, say, 22 leading investment banks and averaging them?
My take on Wall Street forecasts for 2022
My firm judged me qualified to write their daily market letter, based on the fact that I had one month’s experience in Wall Street
What to make of declining bond yields
The investor does not have to be an expert in macro-economic theory.
Which is better: top down or bottom up investing?
Many investors have lost money trying to tie their fortunes to a trend such as demographics and an aging population.
Why you can safely ignore market (and economic) predictions.
The last time I made any specific stock market predictions was in the year 1914, when my firm judged me qualified to write their daily market letter, based on the fact that I had one month’s experience in Wall Street.
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