One apportions investment positions or portfolio weightings according to one’s informed estimate of each stock’s probable return; it is the weighting that provides the highest geometric mean of outcomes; betting your beliefs.
Now, real games are not like that at all. Real life is not like that. Real life consists of bluffing, of little tactics of deception, of asking yourself what is the other man going to think I mean to do. And that is what games are about in my theory.
They must avoid the temptation to say that lady luck owes them one and take outsized risks
The notions of coherence, plausibility, and probability are easily confused by the unwary.
People who succeed in the stock market also accept periodic losses, setbacks, and unexpected occurrences
An investment is a favourable bet. Gambling is an unfavourable bet.
The betting errors made by the subjects included over-betting, under-betting, erratic-betting and betting based on previous flips
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