Does Wisdom of Crowds apply to earnings estimates, price targets, value estimates and stock prices?
The behavioral tail can wag the statistical dog
The behavioral tail can wag the statistical dog
Behavioral inefficiencies are likely the most enduring because human nature has not changed much over time and is unlikely to change much in the future.
The world does not operate in accordance with conventional economic or finance theory posited on the notion that people are both rational and selfish.
The concept of this research is to capture results associated with a long-term investor (we assume a 5-year holding period) that has incredible stock-picking skill
Most trading that is going on right now has nothing to do with value
Markets now exhibit far more casino-like behavior than they did when I was young. The casino now resides in many homes and daily tempts the occupants.
The stock market and individual stocks still seem capable of swinging from euphoria to fear, from fear to euphoria, from bull to bear and from bear to bull, as they have over stock market history.
Declining free cash flow may be a sign the company is investing for the future! Or it may be a very bad sign. Increasing free cash flow may be a good sign or a bad sign. It’s all in the interpretation of the financials.
What could be more advantageous in an intellectual contest – whether it be bridge, chess, or stock selection – than to have opponents who have been taught that thinking is a waste of energy?
Rising prices are a narcotic that affect the reasoning power up and down the line
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