The danger of specious correlation
It is mathematically inevitable that highly intelligent women will marry husbands who on average will be less intelligent than they are.
investment psychology
The danger of specious statistics
Small samples, sample period and survivorship bias, as weaknesses in statistics, exemplify a problem in our ordinary reasoning.
My take on simplicity in investing
A fancy spreadsheet will give precise numbers but can also give you a false sense of accuracy.
The joy of contrarian investing
The moral courage to act ‘in opposition to the crowd’ when your judgement tells you are right
Your investment style may be stuck in a bad grove in a changing world
It’s not that the contrary views aren’t there. We just ignore them.
Does Wisdom of Crowds apply to earnings estimates, price targets, value estimates and stock prices?
The behavioral tail can wag the statistical dog
Do optimists make better or worse investors?
The main benefit of optimism is resilience in the face of setbacks
Investors overreact to vivid memories and recent events
The good news is that we can do something. Kahneman describes risk policies as decision rules that are always applied in similar situations.
The worst behavioral bias – jumping to conclusions
The good news is that we can do something. Kahneman describes risk policies as decision rules that are always applied in similar situations.
Overcoming mistaken short term thinking with Kahneman style risk policies
Reduce or eliminate the pain of the occasional loss by the thought that the policy that left you exposed to it will almost certainly be financially advantageous over the long run
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