Random Walk fallacy in investing
The defining feature of randomness of a series of data is that each data event be independent from all other data events in the series.
predictions
The curious advice to sell in May and go away
We are prone to exaggerate the consistency and coherence of what we see.
My take on Wall Street forecasts for 2022
My firm judged me qualified to write their daily market letter, based on the fact that I had one month’s experience in Wall Street
Why you can safely ignore market (and economic) predictions.
The last time I made any specific stock market predictions was in the year 1914, when my firm judged me qualified to write their daily market letter, based on the fact that I had one month’s experience in Wall Street.
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