Among other factors, indicators of extremes of euphoria seem much more important than price
Using trailing twelve months earnings that are impacted by a recession is a mistake
They looked at the allocation between stocks, bonds and cash. They found that over 95 percent of the funds’ returns came from their asset allocation.
Going parabolic and other lies
While the Fed had no explicit mandate to focus on the stock market, the effects of the run-up in prices seemed to me a legitimate concern
I am not attuned to this market environment, and I don’t want to spoil a decent record by trying to play a game I don’t understand just so I can go out a hero.
The S&P 500 appears to cross through the two standard deviation channel in mid-1996.
These charts tend to exaggerate recent prices and understate older prices. As the time period increases the distortions of the chart increase.