Any prediction based on models can be overwhelmed by what happens in the real world
The investor does not have to be an expert in macro-economic theory.
Today’s investor cannot tell what percentage gain in earnings, dividends and prices he may expect in the next ten years
About forty years ago Buffett experienced a Damascene conversion
Wrap up on the drawbacks of CAPE. A fair level for price earnings ratios has changed over the years.
Investors are reading CAPE all wrong.
A CAPE ratio of 26.91 does not prove the stock market is overpriced. The stock market today may be overpriced or underpriced. CAPE using a historic average as a benchmark just doesn’t tell us one way or another