Is it a good time to lighten up on stocks?
If the job has been correctly done when a common stock is purchased, the time to sell it is – almost never.
CAPE
Investment in intangibles has wreaked havoc on the meaning of multiples
The majority of investments are in intangible assets, including research and development, customer acquisition costs and branding. But companies commonly expense these investments on the income statement as they incur them.
Dynamic asset allocation and the Equity Risk Premium
Market and economic structures can shift, undercutting a key basis for using historical data to make predictions
CAPE’s halo falls with a thud
CAPE is ignorant of interest rates
The relationship between stock prices and interest rates
Any prediction based on models can be overwhelmed by what happens in the real world
What to make of declining bond yields
The investor does not have to be an expert in macro-economic theory.
Expected future returns
Today’s investor cannot tell what percentage gain in earnings, dividends and prices he may expect in the next ten years
Stock valuation in an age of intangible assets
About forty years ago Buffett experienced a Damascene conversion
Problems with CAPE Part lll
Wrap up on the drawbacks of CAPE. A fair level for price earnings ratios has changed over the years.
Problems with CAPE – Part ll
Investors are reading CAPE all wrong.
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