Random Walk fallacy in investing
The defining feature of randomness of a series of data is that each data event be independent from all other data events in the series.
charts
Why I don’t invest in gold
If the current gold bubble bursts, as the 1970s gold bubble burst, it might take decades for gold investors to recover their investment in real terms without any dividends or interest payments along the way.
Disagreeing with Jeremy Grantham’s bubble call
Among other factors, indicators of extremes of euphoria seem much more important than price
Chart distortions that drive me crazy
Going parabolic and other lies
Use of charts and statistics to identify bubbles
The S&P 500 appears to cross through the two standard deviation channel in mid-1996.
The common misuse of charts
These charts tend to exaggerate recent prices and understate older prices. As the time period increases the distortions of the chart increase.
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