Investment decision making in face of uncertainty
Robust decision-making embraces many plausible futures, then helps analysts and decision makers identify near-term actions that are robust across a very wide range of futures
Discounted Cash Flow
The Equity Risk Premium and what to use it for
On this basis it could be argued that, at that time, since expected returns were well below historic norms, prices were too high.
CAPE’s halo falls with a thud
CAPE is ignorant of interest rates
Heart of stock valuation: subtleties of free cash flow
If a company’s capital expenditures are simply maintaining the company’s position in its markets, it free cash flow may be unduly high
The problem with analysts’ target prices
The sell side analyst’s target prices do not estimate fair value. DCF estimates do just that. Investors should not confuse the two.
Stock valuation in an age of intangible assets
About forty years ago Buffett experienced a Damascene conversion
How Warren Buffett goes about valuing companies
We are going to want to get a significantly higher return, obviously — in terms of cash produced relative to the amount we’re outlaying now — for a business than we are from a government bond. That has to be the yardstick at a base.
The dangers and benefits of using Discounted Cash Flow analysis reports
Opinions of fair value based on DCF calculations are necessarily inexact (rightly vague?). But, at least they at least ask the right question.
Problems with CAPE – Part l
A CAPE ratio of 26.91 does not prove the stock market is overpriced. The stock market today may be overpriced or underpriced. CAPE using a historic average as a benchmark just doesn’t tell us one way or another
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