Nuggets of Investing Wisdom

Nuggets of Investing Wisdom

A website for serious investors in common stocks

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fair value

The search for a better guide to stock values

  • by Rodney Smith
  • Posted on October 2, 2022October 3, 2022
  • Part 7: Building and Managing a Portfolio

Can we improve on the accuracy of these estimates by obtaining estimates from, say, 22 leading investment banks and averaging them?

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The Equity Risk Premium and what to use it for

  • by Rodney Smith
  • Posted on August 21, 2022August 21, 2022
  • Part 7: Building and Managing a Portfolio

On this basis it could be argued that, at that time, since expected returns were well below historic norms, prices were too high.

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Scatter shot estimates of fair value

  • by Rodney Smith
  • Posted on July 3, 2022July 5, 2022
  • Part 7: Building and Managing a Portfolio

A group with a high anchor were prepared to pay three times as much for the same wine as a group with a low anchor

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Let’s talk about what value really means

  • by Rodney Smith
  • Posted on February 6, 2022February 7, 2022
  • Part 7: Building and Managing a Portfolio

I would rather be vaguely right than precisely wrong

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Heart of stock valuation: subtleties of free cash flow

  • by Rodney Smith
  • Posted on January 24, 2021January 24, 2021
  • Part 7: Building and Managing a Portfolio

If a company’s capital expenditures are simply maintaining the company’s position in its markets, it free cash flow may be unduly high

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The problem with analysts’ target prices

  • by Rodney Smith
  • Posted on January 17, 2021January 21, 2021
  • Part 7: Building and Managing a Portfolio

The sell side analyst’s target prices do not estimate fair value. DCF estimates do just that. Investors should not confuse the two.

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How Warren Buffett goes about valuing companies

  • by Rodney Smith
  • Posted on June 8, 2020January 15, 2021
  • Part 7: Building and Managing a Portfolio

We are going to want to get a significantly higher return, obviously — in terms of cash produced relative to the amount we’re outlaying now — for a business than we are from a government bond. That has to be the yardstick at a base.

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The dangers and benefits of using Discounted Cash Flow analysis reports

  • by Rodney Smith
  • Posted on May 31, 2020November 29, 2020
  • Part 7: Building and Managing a Portfolio

Opinions of fair value based on DCF calculations are necessarily inexact (rightly vague?). But, at least they at least ask the right question.

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What is the right price earnings ratio?

  • by Rodney Smith
  • Posted on March 8, 2020January 15, 2021
  • Part 7: Building and Managing a Portfolio

Price earnings ratios are a frail and shifting basis for determining fair value. They do not force investors to think through all the factors that go into a deep assessment of fair value.

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The conventional view of market efficiency is badly mistaken

  • by Rodney Smith
  • Posted on March 2, 2020January 15, 2021
  • Part 1: The Field of Play

Prices in the stock market are never a reliable guide to the fair value of a stock.

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