Robust decision-making embraces many plausible futures, then helps analysts and decision makers identify near-term actions that are robust across a very wide range of futures
Can we improve on the accuracy of these estimates by obtaining estimates from, say, 22 leading investment banks and averaging them?
On this basis it could be argued that, at that time, since expected returns were well below historic norms, prices were too high.
A group with a high anchor were prepared to pay three times as much for the same wine as a group with a low anchor
I would rather be vaguely right than precisely wrong
If a company’s capital expenditures are simply maintaining the company’s position in its markets, it free cash flow may be unduly high
The sell side analyst’s target prices do not estimate fair value. DCF estimates do just that. Investors should not confuse the two.
We are going to want to get a significantly higher return, obviously — in terms of cash produced relative to the amount we’re outlaying now — for a business than we are from a government bond. That has to be the yardstick at a base.
Opinions of fair value based on DCF calculations are necessarily inexact (rightly vague?). But, at least they at least ask the right question.
Price earnings ratios are a frail and shifting basis for determining fair value. They do not force investors to think through all the factors that go into a deep assessment of fair value.