My thoughts on the Buffett Indicator – current Market Cap to GDP
The best cash flow measure is Warren Buffett’s Owner Earnings. If that is increasing faster than GDP, the fair value of companies will increase faster than GDP
non-stationarity
Is it a good time to lighten up on stocks?
If the job has been correctly done when a common stock is purchased, the time to sell it is – almost never.
Numbers, financial statements and things that can be counted but may not count
You know, Skippy, if all this bad stuff hadn’t happened, we would be having a pretty good quarter.
Investment in intangibles has wreaked havoc on the meaning of multiples
The majority of investments are in intangible assets, including research and development, customer acquisition costs and branding. But companies commonly expense these investments on the income statement as they incur them.
The Achilles heel of the quantitative analysis of stocks
Something that knocks the pins out from our normal understanding of price earnings ratios, return on invested capital, discounted cash flow analysis, smart beta/factor ETFs, value at risk models (VAR) and even company financial statements
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