A set of rules to develop a behavioral edge – Part 6
The strong bias toward believing that small samples closely resemble the population from which they are drawn is also part of a larger story
statistics
The search for a better guide to stock values
Can we improve on the accuracy of these estimates by obtaining estimates from, say, 22 leading investment banks and averaging them?
Quantitative vs intuitive in investing
Human decisions affecting the future, whether personal or political or economic, cannot depend on strict mathematical expectation, since the basis for making such calculations does not exist.
The danger of specious statistics
Small samples, sample period and survivorship bias, as weaknesses in statistics, exemplify a problem in our ordinary reasoning.
Does Wisdom of Crowds apply to earnings estimates, price targets, value estimates and stock prices?
The behavioral tail can wag the statistical dog
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